The text is originally published in Russian by Lenta.ru
Ashton Carter, the US Deputy Secretary of Defence in office, was nominated on 6 December by Barack Obama to head the Pentagon. In case the Senate approves the nominee, the new Secretary of Defence will be an active analyst, who has worked in the Pentagon on different positions with 11 of the previous Secretaries, and is, therefore, well familiar with the American military machine. However, this appointment has almost no implications for the US military strategy like all the previous appointments in the last 20 years. Irrespective of who holds the position of the Defence Secretary, the US remains a naval power, whose continental territories will remain immune to opponents at least till 2050.
This circumstance has shaped the core of the US global strategy throughout their history. Far from significant external threats and with peaceful states as neignbours, enjoying favourable climate and a stable political regime, the US has all the conditions for sustainable economic growth, which has lasted practically uninterrupted since 1880s. Not once during this time has the US been shaken by conflicts similar to the European wars of the 20th century. These greenhouse conditions have made for the leading position of the US today.
Apart from that, the US has made itself a self-sufficient country with export amounting to insignificantly higher than 10% of the GDP, three quarters of which go to Canada and Mexico. The capacity of its domestic market makes the US low dependent on the world political and economic situation.
It seems to me that George Friedman’s geopolitical doctrine simplifies both the international reality and the liberal ideas of the American mainstream. Acceptance of the reality of the existing balance of powers, aspiration for preserving stability and guidance by the international law – these are the key ingredients in the realist policies recipe that the US still fail to manage.
Surely, the gist of what is happening on the G20 sessions is difficult to follow for those who are not experts on the matter. The Group’s resolutions exclusively concern economy and aim at changing rules, which has a delayed effect. Nonetheless, making up political tales instead of trying to look into the case does not seem a correct choice.
The President promised to redirect Russian energy streams to countries where “economy is not confused with politics”. He was referring to the Summit host Turkey in the first place with its increasing need for energy resources. Despite the differences between Turkey and Russia on the Syrian issue, the two states are deepening their cooperation in the energy field making their relations genuinely strategic.
The key question for Russia is whether the Operation Atlantic Resolve will become the start of permanent stationing of American and NATO forces in the countries of former Warsaw Pact and the post-Soviet space. Moscow insists that its security needs be taken into account, whereas the American leadership believes that the motives of Russia stem from “misinterpretations and outdated thinking”.
«Внешняя политика» - аналитическое агентство, которое позволяет частным лицам и специалистам государственных и бизнес-структур правильно понимать логику международных процессов и трезво оценивать и прогнозировать политические риски. В отличие от СМИ, материалы "ВП" формируют целостное понимание проблемы и позволяют принимать решения.