The text was originally published in Russian
With the Ukrainian crisis, for the first time in 25 years the NATO has been confronted with the question – what are the security guarantees for its members worth? The foremost anxiety for Brussels is the threat of Russian hybrid aggression that scares East European members of the Alliance. The recent large-scale drill at the Russian borders are to show Moscow that allies are on the alert.
Notably, the Westerners’ astonishment is caused mostly by how Russia acted in Crimea and, as some think, is acting in Donbass – but by the motives of Russian policies. Ones, who are seizing the initiative within NATO at the moment, are those who call for war – not talks – with Russia. The paradox of soldiers fighting with no identifying signs or under no flag has compelled them completely.
It’s the hour of triumph for the Baltic states. Their leadership have been crying wolves since early 1990s every time the Pskov division of the Russian airborne troops started their military manoeuvres. And now, when the ‘wolves’ have finally come, the Baltic politicians are anxious to get heard this time. The loudest is the voice of Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė, woman of a challenging fate:
It seems to me that George Friedman’s geopolitical doctrine simplifies both the international reality and the liberal ideas of the American mainstream. Acceptance of the reality of the existing balance of powers, aspiration for preserving stability and guidance by the international law – these are the key ingredients in the realist policies recipe that the US still fail to manage.
The President promised to redirect Russian energy streams to countries where “economy is not confused with politics”. He was referring to the Summit host Turkey in the first place with its increasing need for energy resources. Despite the differences between Turkey and Russia on the Syrian issue, the two states are deepening their cooperation in the energy field making their relations genuinely strategic.
The space of the modern Europe is clotting, strategic depth is fading away and partners-opponents are at the front door.To escape confrontation and revive its role of the Eurasian dynamic kernel peacefully, it is important that Russia follows the motives and logic in policies of both its rivals and buffer states on its periphery.
My observations in Washington prove that this is not an immediate objective for the US yet. However, it does not mean, that the Americans will refrain from an opportunity to speed up the fall of the Russian regime if the internal problems cause a social upheaval. Having met with the White House, National Security Council and Pentagon officials, as well as experts on Russia in Washington, I may conclude that the US has certain difficulties formulating a single consistent policy towards Moscow and is, therefore, incapable of conspiring against it.
«Внешняя политика» - аналитическое агентство, которое позволяет частным лицам и специалистам государственных и бизнес-структур правильно понимать логику международных процессов и трезво оценивать и прогнозировать политические риски. В отличие от СМИ, материалы "ВП" формируют целостное понимание проблемы и позволяют принимать решения.