The text was originally published in Russian
With the Ukrainian crisis, for the first time in 25 years the NATO has been confronted with the question – what are the security guarantees for its members worth? The foremost anxiety for Brussels is the threat of Russian hybrid aggression that scares East European members of the Alliance. The recent large-scale drill at the Russian borders are to show Moscow that allies are on the alert.
Notably, the Westerners’ astonishment is caused mostly by how Russia acted in Crimea and, as some think, is acting in Donbass – but by the motives of Russian policies. Ones, who are seizing the initiative within NATO at the moment, are those who call for war – not talks – with Russia. The paradox of soldiers fighting with no identifying signs or under no flag has compelled them completely.
It’s the hour of triumph for the Baltic states. Their leadership have been crying wolves since early 1990s every time the Pskov division of the Russian airborne troops started their military manoeuvres. And now, when the ‘wolves’ have finally come, the Baltic politicians are anxious to get heard this time. The loudest is the voice of Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė, woman of a challenging fate:
The German Eastern policy is coming to its end with Berlin and Moscow acting as opponents on the Ukrainian issue. The fact is no news, however, the world Media have been busy speculating on it lately. Harshness of Angela Merkel’s anti-Russian speeches in the Australian Brisbane or the German Bundestag may not be blamed on pressure from the US. It is of Germany’s own interests to curb the Russian influence in Europe.
My observations in Washington prove that this is not an immediate objective for the US yet. However, it does not mean, that the Americans will refrain from an opportunity to speed up the fall of the Russian regime if the internal problems cause a social upheaval. Having met with the White House, National Security Council and Pentagon officials, as well as experts on Russia in Washington, I may conclude that the US has certain difficulties formulating a single consistent policy towards Moscow and is, therefore, incapable of conspiring against it.
Although coping with sanctions, plummeting oil prices and a devalued ruble is challenging, it is paramount that Russian leaders continue to spend time and energy to address the economy’s structural problems and give it a new focus. That is the path to creating an economy that is stronger, more efficient and more flexible in the years to come.
«Внешняя политика» - аналитическое агентство, которое позволяет частным лицам и специалистам государственных и бизнес-структур правильно понимать логику международных процессов и трезво оценивать и прогнозировать политические риски. В отличие от СМИ, материалы "ВП" формируют целостное понимание проблемы и позволяют принимать решения.